Domestic Fuel

The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) is calling claims made by an advertising campaign against ethanol by a coalition food and oil company groups “half-baked.”

“If the products sold to consumers by Big Food are as half-baked as their ethanol claims, we have a life-threatening food safety crisis in America,” stated Brian Jennings, Executive Vice President of ACE. “Never before has more corn been used to make more ethanol, and yet retail food prices have fallen sharply this year.”

Jennings issued the statement in response to an anti-ethanol ad last week in the Capitol Hill publication Roll Call, that was funded by the American Meat Institute, Grocery Manufacturers Association, National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, Environmental Working Group and others. The ad claimed that moving from 10 percent ethanol in gasoline up to E15 would be bad for consumers, the environment, and rural communities.

“This coalition of strange bedfellows is both desperate and naïve,” Jennings said. “Oil and food companies are desperate and will resort to anything to protect the status quo of cheap corn and expensive oil. Some environmental groups naively believe getting rid of corn ethanol today, in hopes that some other potentially promising but not yet commercialized technology will be available tomorrow, will somehow reduce air pollution.”

EPA is currently considering a petition that would increase the amount of ethanol allowed in regular gasoline to 15 percent from the current 10 percent.

After becoming one of the top three wheat exporters in 2008, Russia is now determined to play a pivotal role in the flow of worldwide agriculture markets. Russian Federation’s President Dmitry Medvedev has proposed closer coordination between global grain exporters and said, “excessive protectionism had encouraged speculation in global grain markets,” during the World Grain Forum which took place over the weekend in Saint-Petersburg. This challenge was spurred in part by the number of people globally  who are stricken with extreme starvation: 1 billion.

Russia is also the second largest oil supplier and intends to get into the biofuels game. However, Medvedev said to the more than 1,000 forum attendees that the country would only support sustainable fuels developed from non-food sources.

“The technology now exists and we think the world community has to find a compromise between the issues of energy and food security,” Medvedev said in Rueters’ article Kremlin urges grain exporters to tackle world hunger. “The growth of biofuels should not become a reason for a growing deficit of food grain.” The country plans on more than doubling its agriculture land and production over the next few years.

Syngenta Chief Operating Office Crop Protection, John Atkin was also a speaker during the World Grain Forum and during his presentation emphasized the critical role of technology in meeting current and future global food needs.

“The world must work together, Atkin said, “to accelerate technology adoption. We could already realize significant yield
potential within the next three years by comprehensively deploying existing technologies.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation, Growth Energy, National Farmers Union, and National Corn Growers Association joined together today to host a media call to applaud the recently released report from the Congressional Budget Office, “The Impact of Ethanol Use on Food Prices and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions.” The report concluded that from April 2007-April 2008 ethanol did have a slight impact on rising food prices but that other culprits, such as high energy prices, had the most impact on rising food costs. Of the 5.1 percent increase in food prices, expanded ethanol production contributed between 0.5 and 0.8 percent of the increase in food prices measured by the consumer price index.

Bob Stallman, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, began by saying, “The results come as no surprise to us. We have called for hearings to determine why food prices have increased. It’s disingenuous to only look at corn when determining why food prices are increasing. We think they owe us an apology.”

Tom Buis, CEO of Growth Energy expanded on the factors that did have the most impact on rising food prices including the weak dollar, increased exports, unregulated energy markets, and oil speculation.  Roger Johnson, President of the National Farmers Union noted that studies have shown that during the same time food prices and gas prices were on the rise, ethanol saved consumers an average of 34 cents per gallon. This equates to nearly $500 per year for the average family.

The ethanol industry has recently filed a “Green Jobs Waiver” or “E15 Waiver” with the EPA to increase the blend level from 10 percent to 15 percent. It has been argued by ethanol proponents that unless the blend wall is increased the industry won’t be able to achieve the goals set out in the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) calling for 36 billion gallons of biofuels blended per year by 2022. “We won’t get there unless we make the ethanol industry profitable again and get through the higher blend wall,” summed up Rick Tolman, CEO of the National Corn Growers Association. “We will provide what we need to get to the next generation of biofuels.”

The ethanol industry wasted no time fighting back today against another attack by the food industry to blame higher prices on ethanol production.

The newly-formed Growth Energy called on the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) to “discontinue its deceptive attacks on the government’s investment in ethanol and other renewable fuels.” Growth Energy held a press conference shortly after the group “Food Before Fuel,” which is back by GMA, held a press conference calling for an end to all ethanol “subsidies.”

Growth Energy members in turn pointed out that the food companies themselves have been the beneficiary of subsidies, such as the $55 billion being spent this year on federal food assistance programs. “The federal government has an important role in supporting programs that promote the common good,” said Dave Vander Griend, President & CEO of ICM, Inc. and board member of Growth Energy. “Whether by funding anti-poverty programs like food stamps or championing renewable energy that will jumpstart our green economy and create jobs, we believe that it is good public policy to make smart investments for our nation’s future.”

The “Food Before Fuel” group called the press conference today as the “30th anniversary of ethanol subsidies” and referred to ethanol as “30-year-old under employed child” living in our basement. During the Cellulosic Ethanol Summit in Florida, Renewable Fuels Association president Bob Dinneen said, “It’s a cute analogy but the problem is there’s somebody else living in that house and it’s the 120-year-old oil industry that continues to be subsidized,” as well as other energy industries. “There is not a single energy market today that is not heavily subsidized by the government because energy is so darn important to every nation’s economy.”

The National Corn Growers Association was outraged by the attack, which was focused only on corn ethanol. “These same ethanol critics are the ones who virtually promised to reduce food prices immediately, and have failed to do so, even though corn prices and energy prices are down by more than half in the last few weeks,” National Corn Growers Association president Bob Dickey said.

A Reuters report from the UK today quotes an economic expert as saying higher food prices this year were driven by speculators, not ethanol.

Heavy demand for corn from ethanol makers was seen as a key driver of corn futures to record highs in June, but since then the sharp decline of corn along with other commodities shows that belief was mistaken. Corn is down about 50 percent from its record high in June, even as the amount of the grain used to produce the renewable fuel in the United States remained the same.

The article quotes Stewart Ramsey, senior economist for Global Insight, a Philadelphia-based company that provides economic, financial, and political analysis and forecasting. “The record high prices were a speculative bubble,” Ramsey says in the article.

Analysts said soaring corn prices were a symptom of big shifts of investment money into corn and other commodities. As big money began shifting out of stocks a few years ago, commodity markets like corn futures began climbing. “There was a speculative bubble in the market and that’s one of the bigget things that came out of the market is just that equity markets weren’t good and for a while the money came into commodities,” Ramsay said.

Recently, the Ethanol Across America education program released a White Paper titled: Ethanol Economics from Ranch to Restaurant, authored by Chairman of the Nebraska Ethanol Board (NEB) Jim Jenkins. Jenkins is also cattleman and a restaurant owner. This White Paper presents a unique perspective on the impact of increased grain prices on his two businesses and how it may drive industry to more efficiency and greater profitability.

“A number of factors have led to the recent historic increase in commodity prices, but market forces are kicking in—creating stability, and profit opportunities for livestock producers, biofuels producers and the rural communities in which they live and do business,” noted Jenkins in the paper. “The advent of the biofuel industry is helping lead America out of decades of stagnant commodity prices—while, for the first time, providing consumers with a viable fuel choice for their vehicles.”

Ethanol Across America is a non-profit, non-partisan education campaign of the Clean Fuels Foundation and is sponsored by industry, government, and private interests. U.S. Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Richard Lugar (R-IN), Co-Chairmen.

The Nebraska Ethanol Board, in cooperation with the University of Nebraska Center for Energy Science Research, is hosting a policy forum in October to discuss issues of rising energy and food prices.

The forum will provide an opportunity for Nebraska policymakers and consumers to better understand how ethanol policy plays a role in economic development, energy security, agriculture and the environment.

The Nebraska Ethanol Board is inviting presentations from a diverse group of people, including corn growers, restaurant owners and livestock feeders. Confirmed presenters include Dr. Ken Cassman of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Dr. Terry Klopfenstein of UN-L, Michael Kelsey of the Nebraska Cattlemen, Jon Holzfaster of the Nebraska Corn Board, and Jim Jenkins, rancher, restaurateur and chairman of the Nebraska Ethanol Board.

The forum is scheduled for Friday, October 24 at 9 a.m. at the Scott Conference Center in Omaha.

Analysts with a major agricultural financial institution say alternative fuels are just one of the many factors causing higher food prices.

Karol Aure-Flynn, executive director of the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory department, says “food versus fuel” is basically a misleading sound bite. “The fallacy of the headline is that there is a direct competition between the two; that it’s either or. The reality is that strong global economic growth has changed the demand equation for U.S. commodities,” he said in a recent Rabobank podcast. “The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, soaring energy costs and changing trade policies are also contributing to the cost of commodities, which in turn is raising the cost of food — it’s not just fuel, it’s a combination of all of these factors.”

Aure-Flynn also notes that while prices at the farm level have increased this year, they have been outpaced by production costs for farmers.

“Farmers’ profitability doesn’t change retail prices. And farmers’ profitability isn’t guaranteed by high grain prices. The same factors that are lifting grain prices are lifting production costs,” said Aure-Flynn. “So, yes, the farm price index is at 162 percent of what it was 1990-1992, but at the same time the price index measuring what farmers pay — for services, farm wages — is 189 percent of base.”

Rabobank is a global financial services leader providing institutional and retail banking and agricultural finance solutions in key markets around the world.

The bottom line for the Environmental Protection Agency when it came to making a decision on the request for a partial waiver of the Renewable Fuels Standard was the impact within the next year.

According to EPA, “implementation of the RFS would have no significant impact in the relevant time frame (the 2008/2009 corn season), and the most likely result is that a waiver would have no impact on ethanol production volumes in the relevant time frame, and therefore no impact on corn, food, or fuel prices.”

EPA also determined that the evidence also indicates that even if the RFS mandate were to have an impact on the economy during the 2008/2009 corn marketing year, it would not be of a nature or magnitude that could be characterized as severe. Even in the modeled scenarios where a waiver of the RFS mandate might reduce the production of ethanol, the resulting decrease in corn prices is anticipated to be small (on average $0.30 per bushel of corn), and there would be an accompanying small increase in the price of fuel (on average $0.01 per gallon in fuel costs). The average increase in corn prices in all modeled scenarios, including scenarios where the RFS mandate would and would not have an impact, was $0.07 per bushel of corn. Such levels of potential impacts from the RFS program do not satisfy the high threshold of harm to the economy to be considered severe.

Read EPA’s decision justification here.

There seems to be no end to the rhetoric bouncing around between agricultural experts, critics and media about what’s driving food costs. Biofuels are still one of the most common scapegoats for why we’re paying more for our food than ever before. But the Farm Foundation wants to get to the root of it all. That’s why it sought out three academics from Purdue University to research more than a dozen studies and determine the “truth” behind what the organization calls “one of the most important issues facing agriculture today.” The Farm Foundation hopes the findings of their report will offer policy makers an objective source to refer to when facing the challenges of today’s food system.

Wally Tyner is one of the professors who was a part of the three-man team that conducted the study. The agricultural economics guru says his team found three major driving factors in high food prices:

“The first is global trends in production and consumption of agricultural commodities. The second is has to do with sort of macro economic factors, the depreciation of the dollar. And the third has to do with biofuels. And these are linked in some ways but in some ways its like a perfect storm of all these things coming together at the same time that has led to the huge run-up in prices.”

In this DomesticFuel Cast, we hear from Neal Conklin, President of Farm Foundation and Wally Tyner, Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. Here is the Domestic Fuel Cast #7:

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