Domestic Fuel

One of the benefits of membership in the GROWMARK cooperative system is daily information about the energy markets and recommendations on contracting fuel at different times of the year.

Harry Cooney is manager of customer risk management for GROWMARK Energy and he is constantly keeping an eye on the energy complex, especially gasoline, propane and diesel fuel. He says the primary influences on the energy market lately have been the situation in Europe, the value of the dollar and the stock market.

“In the past six months to a year, there’s been a strong connection between the stock markets and the energy markets,” Cooney said. “When things look bad in Europe, then our stock market tends to fall off and when the stock market falls off the energy markets tend to fall off.” He says world events in the currency and stock markets and whether the economy is strengthening or weakening have more impact on energy markets than public policy decisions, like the blenders tax credit for ethanol and the Renewable Fuels Standard.

In the diesel market, Cooney says we are seeing strong demand and falling stocks. “Diesel stocks have fallen under the five year average for the first time in many months,” he said. “The economy is starting to come around so stocks are coming down and diesel demand is back well over the five year average after just bottoming in July.”

As propane users look ahead to contracting for 2012, Cooney says they are currently making recommendations for summer through winter of next year. “Given the somewhat tight stocks situation and the fact that crude oil tends to want to go up, it makes us want to be a buyer of propane,” he said.

Listen to my interview with Harry Cooney here: Harry Cooney Interview

CHS Energy is bullish on ethanol.

That’s according to CHS Energy Director of Sales Mark Fenner, who was giving interviews at the recent National Association of Farm Broadcasting meeting in Kansas City. “We don’t know about the tax incentives, but even without it, I think we’re going to see strong use for ethanol because it is less expensive than traditional gasoline, so when you blend it – whether at E15 or E10 – it does lower the price,” said Fenner.

CHS Energy is part of a national diversified company owned by farmers, ranchers and cooperatives that operates petroleum refineries/pipelines and manufactures, markets and distributes Cenex brand refined fuels, lubricants, propane and renewable energy products. Fenner says the move to a 15 percent ethanol blend for some vehicles is very positive for agriculture, but it does present challenges for retailers. “Our stance was could we look at an E12 where every vehicle could use that and retailers wouldn’t have to split the islands based on newer or older cars,” he said.

CHS also distributes biodiesel and Fenner says that market is less positive for them at the moment. “The flat price of biodiesel compared to traditional diesel has been a big hindrance. We just haven’t seen the demand in that product that we had hoped to see,” he said. “We’re an agricultural-owned company so we wanted to see that product take hold, but it’s just difficult.” He says they still sell a good bit of biodiesel, but it continues to be a struggle.

Listen to a short interview with Mark Fenner here: CHS Interview

The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) has a good post on the E-xchange Blog this week about the relationship between ethanol and gasoline prices and the importance of the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit, or VEETC.

RFA Vice President for Research Geoff Cooper notes that ethanol prices have strengthened recently and while gas prices have also increased slightly, gasoline prices would be higher were it not for ethanol in the mix. “Despite the fact that the market price for ethanol has been above the price of gasoline in recent weeks, the ethanol blender’s tax credit has kept the effective price of ethanol below the price of gasoline,” Cooper says.

As of last week, Chicago spot prices showed ethanol selling for $0.15 less than the blend-ready gasoline (called Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenated Blending, or RBOB), when VEETC is accounted for. This differential translates to a gallon of E10 being 1.5 cents/gallon cheaper at the retail level than unleaded gasoline without ethanol.

This simple example demonstrates the importance and effectiveness of the VEETC. In essence, VEETC is enhancing the ability of ethanol producers to manage sharply higher corn prices, while at the same time ensuring ethanol is priced competitively with gasoline and ultimately saving consumers money.

Read Cooper’s analysis here.

I’d like to take a poll to see how many people thought that gas prices would never get higher than last summer where some areas around the country nearly topped out at $5.00 a gallon and for several weeks consumers in the South couldn’t even get gas.

Can you say deja vu? According to the Nebraska Ethanol Board, nationally gas prices have risen almost every day for the last 42 days. Several analysts expect that a return to $100 oil and $4.00 gas isn’t too far behind. Extremists predict that we could see $200 barrel of oil before the end of the year.

By now, you’d think that people would realize that ethanol helps consumers save money at the pump. Last summer, an Iowa State University study demonstrated that ethanol helped consumers save on average $500 per year.

Todd Sneller, administrator of the Nebraska Ethanol Board, notes that Nebraska drivers have already saved over $4.5 million in 2009 by buying E10. “If all the fuel sold in Nebraska in the past five years was E85, Nebraskans would have saved $2.6 billion.”

Since energy is tied so closely to our economy many economists are speculating that this steady rise in oil prices could prolong America’s recession. At the beginning of the month, OPEC’s Abdullah al-Badri told attendees at the Global Energy Summit that the price of crude oil needed to be much higher. OPEC intends to do this through modifying production quotas and shutting down oil refineries “until the surplus is depleted”. Demand for oil and gas has dropped 2.6 million barrels per day worldwide.

As people begin to trim their budgets to offset the higher fuel prices, you’d think they would send Big Oil a message that, “we’re not going to take it”.

Nebraska Ethanol Board chair Mike Thede sums it up, “We can invest in alternative, renewable, inexpensive fuels like ethanol, or we can continue the billion-dollar giveaway to Big Oil.”

Recently, the Ethanol Across America education program released a White Paper titled: Ethanol Economics from Ranch to Restaurant, authored by Chairman of the Nebraska Ethanol Board (NEB) Jim Jenkins. Jenkins is also cattleman and a restaurant owner. This White Paper presents a unique perspective on the impact of increased grain prices on his two businesses and how it may drive industry to more efficiency and greater profitability.

“A number of factors have led to the recent historic increase in commodity prices, but market forces are kicking in—creating stability, and profit opportunities for livestock producers, biofuels producers and the rural communities in which they live and do business,” noted Jenkins in the paper. “The advent of the biofuel industry is helping lead America out of decades of stagnant commodity prices—while, for the first time, providing consumers with a viable fuel choice for their vehicles.”

Ethanol Across America is a non-profit, non-partisan education campaign of the Clean Fuels Foundation and is sponsored by industry, government, and private interests. U.S. Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Richard Lugar (R-IN), Co-Chairmen.

Zarco 66 Earth Friendly Fuels plans to celebrate the opening of their eco-friendly fueling facility on Monday, June 30. The station is being designed under a public-private partnership as a demonstration project to showcase various energy technologies and feature sustainability elements on site.

Blends of ethanol, including E85, and biodiesel will be available at 900 Iowa St., in Lawrence, Kansas. Kicking off the celebration will be a press event that includes speakers: Sam Brownback, U.S. Senator, Kansas (invited); Pat Roberts, U.S. Senator, Kansas (invited); John Askew, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 7; and Adrian Polansky, Secretary, Kansas Dept. of Agriculture.

Ethanol fuel blend promotions will be held during the day from 11:30 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. E10 will sell at a 20 cent discount, E20 will sell for a 40 cent discount, E30 will sell for a 60 cent discount and E85 will sell for $1.85 per gallon.

Partners in this alternative fueling facility include: EPA Region 7, Ethanol Promotion and Information Council, University of Kansas, Kansas Dept. of Health and Environment, Kansas Dept. of Agriculture, Kansas Dept. of Revenue, Kansas Dept. of Commerce, Kansas Soybean Commission, Kansas Corn Growers, U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in Kansas, Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association of Kansas, and Zarco 66 Earth Friendly Fuels.

E85 will sell for $2.99 per gallon at the Bloomfield Hills Sunoco fueling facility at 42994 Woodward Ave., in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. This promotion is part of a a joint effort with the Corn Marketing Program of Michigan and the Detroit Area Clean Cities Coalition from noon until 4 p.m. on Thursday, June 19.

A press conference will begin at 11 a.m. with featured speakers expected to include: Patricia Lockwood, Michigan Department of Agriculture; Jody Pollok-Newsom, Corn Marketing Program of Michigan; Douglas Smith, Oakland County; Maggie Striz Calnin, Detroit Area Clean Cities, Lansing Area Clean Cities, and Next Energy; and Rocky Yaldo, Sunoco station owner.

According to the Corn Marketing Program of Michigan, there are five operational ethanol plants with the capacity to produce approximately 250 million gallons of ethanol per year. The state houses 64 E85 fueling locations to date.

American motorists are rethinking their driving habits. That is, according to a new survey commissioned by the Ethanol Promotion and Information Council. The survey shows that consumers think skyrocketing gas prices means the nation should start moving away from oil.

The EPIC survey found 47 percent of those polled stated that a fuel price below $5 a gallon should be the point where fossil fuels are no longer our primary fuel sources. An additional 27 percent of those polled reported that the critical price point lies between $5 and $5.99. America is getting close to the break-point as Sunday, the national average of a gallon of gasoline rose to $4.005, 90 cents higher than a year ago, according to AAA.

Even in the face of heavy criticism from anti-ethanol groups and misplaced blame for rising food prices, the ethanol fuel industry continues to help keep fuel prices below the even-more exorbitant prices consumers would pay without the availability of ethanol fuel.
Read the rest of this post…

According to a press release from the American Lung Association of Iowa, E85 sales are up sharply this quarter, and are on track to shatter old records for the sale of the domestically grown fuel. Below is more detailed information.

More than 450,000 gallons of E85 were sold in Iowa in the month of April alone. This compares with just over 800,000 gallons sold in the second quarter of 2007. While sales data on May and June are not yet available, a spokesperson for the ALA-IA said the amount of E85 being purchased by owners of flex-fuel vehicles in Iowa are unprecedented.

Zopf also credits the increase in sales to several well-publicized promotions and events for E85 across the state. The next major event will be the Iowa Corn Indy 250 at the Iowa Speedway in Newton, where Indy 500 winner Scott Dixon will be among the field of top-name open wheel racers competing at the June 22 race.

Colorado Corn Growers Association, the Governor’s Biofuels Coalition and Western Convenience will be offering E85 for 85 cents per gallon from noon until 2 p.m. on Thursday, June 12. The promotion will celebrate the addition of the domestically grown, alternative fuel to the facility at 123 West Cranston in Fowler, Colorado.

A press conference will begin at the station at 11 a.m. and will include the following speakers: Mark Sponsler of Colorado Corn Growers Association; Bob Van Meter of Western Convenience; and Mayor of Fowler, Ray A. Wards (invited).

“We are glad to partner with the Governor’s Biofuels Coalition (GBC) and Western Convenience who are working to expand E85 throughout the state. By opening this refueling center, we provide Colorado’s agricultural producers and rural citizens an opportunity to buy this environmentally friendly and domestic-sourced fuel. Together, we are making a difference for Colorado’s air quality and for consumers who support renewable fuel,” says Mark Sponsler, CEO of Colorado Corn.

There are about fifty E85 fueling locations throughout the state of Colorado to fuel about 85,000 flexible fuel vehicles. To find a complete listing of these E85 fueling locations, visit the Alternative Fueling Station Locator.

There is no excuse to not purchase E85 in Albany, NY. The cost of the domestically grown, alternative fuel is $1.10 below that of unleaded at $2.95 per gallon! Village Mobil, a member of the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition, is located at 88 Wolf Road in Albany.

E85 contains less energy than unleaded gasoline and when used in a flexible fuel vehicle, consumers will see less miles driven per gallon. To be adventageous financially to consumers, E85 must be priced under gasoline. According to the NEVC, the price differential should be at least 20%. Village Mobil’s price of E85 is nearly 27% below the price of regular unleaded gasoline.

There are nearly 4,700 flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) in Albany that can take advantage of this pricing, and over 200,000 FFVs in the entire state. For a complete listing of E85 stations, including the 20 in the state of New York, go to www.E85Refueling.com.

A study released Monday shows that Missouri drivers are saving money at the pump thanks to ethanol.

According to research results announced at a press conference in the State Capitol, drivers in Missouri are expected to save an average of 9.8 cents per gallon this year due to the 10 percent ethanol standard that went into effect Jan. 1, 2008.

The study, “Impact of Ethanol on Retail Gasoline Prices in Missouri,” was performed by John Urbanchuk with the economic consulting service LECG and paid for by the Missouri Corn Merchandising Council.

“The mandate went into effect in 2008, but last year 70 percent of the gasoline was voluntarily blended with ethanol,” said Urbanchuk. “So, using actual data for 2007, we calculated that the savings for Missouri was roughly 7.8 cents a gallon. Works out to about $156 million for consumers.”

“Then we looked at 2008 moving forward using current information for prices and projections by the Energy Information Administration,” he continued. “And we concluded that for 2008 the savings are about 9.8 cents a gallon, which works out to about $73 for every driver in Missouri.”

The study does not factor in the increasing use of biofuels like ethanol that are helping to extend gasoline supplies and hold retail pump prices down. According to Merrill Lynch commodity strategist Francisco Blanch, U.S. gas prices would be 15 percent higher without the increasing effect of biofuels. Without ethanol, the price at the pump would be $3.70 a gallon instead of the recent average price of $3.25 a gallon.

Listen to an interview with Urbanchuk about the study here.
mcga-urbanchuk.mp3

A pdf file of the study report is available here.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (2.1MB)

Bill Holbrook, owner of Holbrook Consulting, says grain markets are responding to the rapid growth in the ethanol and biodiesel markets. But what will it mean to longer-term grain and livestock prices? In my interview with him, Holbrook says right now, livestock producers are expecting tighter margins, but long-term feed prices are more likely to be affected by weather and the amount of acres being put into production.

Listen to it here: Bill Holbrook
(6:25 min MP3)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (2.9MB)

The Energy Management Institute has released a report that shows alternative fuels are much more cost effective… by nearly 30 percent… than they were just three years ago. The New York-based institute touts itself as higher learning for energy professionals such as oil companies, utilities, and transportation fleets. It found that biodiesel was 29.2% more cost effective than a few years ago while ethanol was 17.4 %. Natural gas (41.4%), electricity (36%), and propane (21.3%) helped alternatives to oil average a 29% cost effectiveness increase.

“We crunched a lot of data for this one,” said J. Scott Susich, Editor of EMI’s Alternative Fuels Index publication. “It’s not enough to look at prices from three years ago and compare them to recent values. We looked at the relationship between the cost of each fuel and the amount of energy one could buy on a BTU equivalent basis, and compared those values to their gasoline and diesel counterparts in each market. Next we had to look at the trends of those relationships to determine whether the results were atypical or part of a sustained pattern. In each case the data showed a continuing trend toward competitiveness,” Susich continued.

Now, whether alternative fuels can continue their cost-competitive march remains to be seen. EMI’s numbers are based on crude oil prices more than doubling during the time period studied to hit nearly $75 a barrel. Today’s oil prices are seen closer to $53 a barrel.

I was very pleasantly surprised to see the price of gas in Columbia, MO yesterday.

Since I drive a flex fuel minivan I filled up with E85.

Tomorrow I’ll be attending the grand opening of Missouri Ethanol in Laddonia, MO. I’ll be taking some pictures and doing some interviews and will ask about our gas prices and what role ethanol is playing in them currently.